NWS Forecast Discussion
001
FXUS61 KBOX 131851
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
251 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance brings clouds and periods of rain
tonight into the first half of Saturday. Precipitation gradually
winds down Saturday afternoon with drier northwest flow aloft. An
onshore flow and low stratus keeps temperatures well below average
through Sunday. Drier conditions return Sunday but still cool,
then a warming trend begins Monday with a return to summer like
temperatures by Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:
* Clouds lower and thicken from W to E as a weak disturbance
approaches from the west.
A weak mid-level shortwave is still on track to impact the region
starting tonight. Influence from high pressure will wane through the
overnight and clouds will lower and thicken from west to east. Mid-
level dry air should hold showers off until after midnight. Lows
tonight will fall into the mid 50s as a cool onshore flow develops.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Periods of showers continue through the first half of the day
* Onshore flow keeps temperatures well below average
Details...
Saturday...
Periods of showers will likely continue through the first half of
Saturday. Ensemble guidance keeps rainfall totals generally at or
below 0.25" for the region. These lower totals are the result of
weak forcing and little instability despite PWAT values rising to
between 1.4 and 1.6 inches. Precipitation gradually winds down from
north to south as northwesterly flow at the mid-levels
gradually dries the column. Unfortunately, this drier layer will
likely only make it down to around 800mb by Saturday evening.
This will translate to a rather dreary day, with high
temperatures struggling to get into the lower 60`s for most of
us. For many locations, this will be the the Saturday in a row
with measurable rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry and cool Sunday
* Warming trend starts Monday, becoming hot and humid for the second
half of next week
Seeing some modest signals for warmer and more humid conditions next
week, but not yet looking like it will be anything really atypical
for summer. Not expecting a washout of a week either, as there
should be many hours of precipitation-free weather.
The first chance of showers will be Sunday night into Monday as weak
low pressure moves by to our south. Trends have been slightly
farther south with the recent guidance, which would result in lower
rainfall chances for us here in southern New England. Have the
highest rainfall chances towards the south coast, including the
Cape and islands. Again, not looking like a washout during this time.
A low pressure moving across the Great Lakes into Canada should push
a warm front across our region some time Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This could trigger a few showers as it does. A greater risk
for mainly afternoon and evening showers is expected Thursday ahead
of the cold front of this low pressure. Slightly cooler and less
humid conditions anticipated for next Friday at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update:
Through tonight...High confidence.
VFR, but lowering cigs tonight with areas of MVFR and scattered
showers developing mainly after 06z from SW to NE. Sea breezes
continue through 00z Sat.
Saturday...Moderate confidence.
Cigs lowering to MVFR with scattered showers, especially in the
morning. Gradually drying out from N to S during the afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Sea-breeze kicking out
around 00z
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Sunday Night through Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Saturday...
E-SE winds developing this evening and continuiung through Saturday.
Speeds below 20 kt and seas below SCA thresholds. Scattered
showers developing tonight with more widespread showers possible
Sat over south coastal waters.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/FT
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin/FT
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin/FT
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin/FT
MARINE...Belk/FT
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